{"id":452,"date":"2014-06-13T14:24:58","date_gmt":"2014-06-13T11:24:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/marx-21.net\/?p=452"},"modified":"2014-07-04T13:36:29","modified_gmt":"2014-07-04T10:36:29","slug":"isid-ve-turkiye-irak-suriye-nusra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/?p=452","title":{"rendered":"I\u015e\u0130D ve T\u00fcrkiye, Irak, Suriye, Nusra \u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

I\u015e\u0130D’in Musul’u i\u015fgal etmesi ile birlikte \u00f6nemi artan I\u015e\u0130D’in T\u00fcrkiye-Suriye-Irak \u00fc\u00e7genindeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck bir analiz.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"isid-militan\"<\/a>(Foto: evrensel.net)<\/em><\/pre>\n

\nMuhammed Cihad Ebrari<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
Uzun zamand\u0131r I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le ilgili birka\u00e7 not d\u00fc\u015fme ihtiyac\u0131 hissetmekle birlikte s\u00fcrekli daha \u00e7ok g\u00fcndem oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u2018art\u0131k birileri de\u011finir, yazar-\u00e7izer\u2019 diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek erteledim ama hala ciddi alakas\u0131z-as\u0131ls\u0131z yorumlar, analizler devam ediyor ve eksiklikler var. Elbette bu eksikleri gideremem ama kendimce birka\u00e7 h\u0131zl\u0131 not d\u00fc\u015feyim;<\/p>\n
– TC I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i do\u011frudan desteklemiyor ve \u00e7ok uzun zamand\u0131r I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 teyakkuzda.<\/p>\n
– TC\u2019nin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e dolayl\u0131 deste\u011fi Irak\u2019a ve \u00f6zellikle Suriye\u2019ye senelerdir rahat giri\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de istedikleri gibi at ko\u015fturmalar\u0131na g\u00f6z yummak oldu. \u015euan bile I\u015e\u0130D ve di\u011fer El Kaide t\u00fcrevi \u00f6rg\u00fctlere mensup ki\u015filere -\u00f6zellikle \u0130stanbul\u2019da- rastlayabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n
– \u2018Yakalanan\u2019silah dolusu t\u0131rlar I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e falan gitmedi, tam tersi \u2013T\u00fcrkmen cephesi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere- \u00a0I\u015e\u0130D\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidi alt\u0131ndaki gruplara g\u00f6nderildi, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e ve rejime kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Ama elbette I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck silah sevkiyat kanal\u0131 olmasa bile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den de bir silah sevkiyat kanal\u0131 var I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in. As\u0131l insan ve silah kanal\u0131 Irak.<\/p>\n
– Elbette AKP\u2019nin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le hatr\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r bir ili\u015fkisi, kanal\u0131 var ancak \u2018i\u015fte AKP\u2019nin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le ili\u015fkisinin delili\u2019 diye doland\u0131r\u0131lan belge ve foto\u011fraflar\u0131n hepsi \u00e7arp\u0131tma, uydurma. Irak i\u015fgali sonras\u0131 AKP ve T\u00fcrkiye \u0130slamc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ili\u015fki i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu Irak S\u00fcnni yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu \u015fuan I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le beraber zaten.<\/p>\n
– AKP \u2018derin strateji\u2019siyle d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin defalarca tecr\u00fcbe edip zararl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6ntemi yeni yetme emperyalist d\u00fcrt\u00fclerle denedi, ayn\u0131 batakl\u0131\u011fa bat\u0131yor. Yerli Suriye muhalifleri tek ba\u015flar\u0131na bir \u015fehir bile ele ge\u00e7iremeyecekleri bilindi\u011fi i\u00e7in El Kaide ve t\u00fcrevlerine yol verdi, \u2018rejim y\u0131k\u0131ls\u0131n sonra icab\u0131na bakar\u0131z, hem de bizle u\u011fra\u015facaklar\u0131na gidip ba\u015fkalar\u0131yla u\u011fra\u015fs\u0131nlar\u2019 denildi.<\/p>\n
– Senelerdir \u2018bunlar Suriye\u2019den Irak\u2019tan \u00e7ok senin ba\u015f\u0131na patlayacak, yapma etme\u2019 denildi ama nafile. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019li \u2018cihad\u00e7\u0131\u2019lar\u0131n bile rahatl\u0131kla Suriye ve Irak\u2019a gidebilmesi i\u00e7in her t\u00fcr olanak sa\u011fland\u0131, El Kaide\u2019den tutuklular\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu tahliye edildi, \u2018cihad\u2019a g\u00f6nderildi.<\/p>\n
– Elbette her istihbarat te\u015fkilat\u0131 bu t\u00fcr organizasyonlara etki etmek, kendilerine kar\u015f\u0131 zarars\u0131z hatta m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda y\u00f6nlendirmek ister, buna M\u0130T de dahil. Ancak I\u015e\u0130D M\u0130T ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yersiz bir iddiad\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in daha \u00e7ok Suudi ve Katar\u2019la b\u00f6lgesel ve do\u011frudan ili\u015fkileri, i\u015fbirlikleri vard\u0131r. Katar ve Arabistan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede en b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcttefikleri ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda birbirlerine de b\u00f6lgede s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7lerin en b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcttefiki olmak i\u00e7in de rakip halindeler ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da, Tunus\u2019da, Libya\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi Suriye ve Irak\u2019ta da birbirlerine gol atmaktan \u00e7ekinmezler.<\/p>\n
– I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i tamamen ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7lerin plan program dahilinde hareket eden piyon yap\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmek, bu hareketlilikleri tamamen d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lere ba\u011flamak da, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i sadece I\u015e\u0130D olarak okumak da yanl\u0131\u015f okumad\u0131r. Hem I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in hem ili\u015fik g\u00fc\u00e7lerin niyetlerini okumak gerekir.<\/p>\n
– TC yani AKP, Nusra, \u00a0(Nusra ve di\u011fer El Kaide t\u00fcrevi \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinde i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu) \u0130slami Cephe ve \u00d6SO\u2019nun bir kanad\u0131yla do\u011frudan ili\u015fkilidir, do\u011frudan destek vermektedir. Nusra\u2019n\u0131n ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc ilan\u0131\u00a0 bask\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma sonucudur, mecburi ve sadece semboliktir. Masa alt\u0131ndan t\u00fcm ili\u015fkiler, g\u00f6n\u00fcl almalar g\u00f6zlerimizin \u00f6n\u00fcnde devam etmektedir.<\/p>\n
– I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le ilgili g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7an en \u00f6nemli hususlardan biri I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in merkezinde bilfiil konumlanm\u0131\u015f Irak Saddam rejimi Baas kadrosudur. Yani bu sava\u015f biraz da Saddam\u2019\u0131n direni\u015fidir. Zaten I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Irak\u2019taki ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda Irak Baas\u0131 (fiili, maddi, lojistik, istihbari, askeri.. Mesela Saddam rejimi ellerindeki t\u00fcm askeri te\u00e7hizat\u0131 ve depolar\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, I\u015e\u0130D Irak lider kadrosunun yar\u0131s\u0131 Saddam rejimi kurmaylar\u0131ndan olu\u015fuyor) Suriye\u2019deki ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda Suudi ve Katar deste\u011fi etkilidir.<\/p>\n
-I\u015e\u0130D de El Kaide\u2019dir, Nusra da. I\u015e\u0130D \u2018art\u0131k bize \u00f6rg\u00fct ismi gerekmiyor, El Kaide isminin karizmas\u0131 bizden size hediye olsun, biz art\u0131k devletiz \u00f6rg\u00fct de\u011fil\u2019 diyerek g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olarak El Kaide ad\u0131n\u0131 kullanmaktan vazge\u00e7ti, isteseydi El Kaide ad\u0131n\u0131 da Zevahiri\u2019ye kapt\u0131rmazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
– I\u015e\u0130D-Nusra \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00e7eki\u015fmesinin sebebi Suriye cephesi de\u011fildir. Bu iki kanad\u0131n \u00e7eki\u015fmesi\u00a0 Irak i\u015fgalinden \u00f6nce bile vard\u0131. Bu \u00e7eki\u015fme Zevahiri (M\u0131s\u0131r-T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u0130hvan hatt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu yerlerin El Kaide hatt\u0131) ile Zerkavi (\u00dcrd\u00fcn-Suudi gibi vahabili\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu yerlerin El Kaide hatt\u0131) uyu\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7eki\u015fmesi ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r. Suriye\u2019den \u00f6nce de silaha sar\u0131lmalar ya\u015fand\u0131 bu iki hat aras\u0131nda ama Suriye gibi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcnde olmad\u0131.
\nBiraz daha a\u00e7arsak; Usame Bin Ladin hayattayken bu dengeyi hep g\u00f6zetti, sorunlar do\u011frudan \u2018\u015eeyh Usame\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131 ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc. Zevahiri ile Zerkavi aras\u0131nda ki\u015fisel \u00e7eki\u015fmezlikler de oldu. Irak cephesi a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte ve Irak cephesinin bilfiil liderli\u011fini y\u00fcr\u00fcten Zerkavi Zevahire\u2019den bir ad\u0131m \u00f6ne ge\u00e7ti. Art\u0131k Afganistan merkezli El Kaide de\u011fil Irak merkezli El Kaide d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcndemine geldi. Zerkavi defalarca Zevahiri\u2019nin emir, \u00f6neri, teklif, nasihatlar\u0131n\u0131 takmad\u0131. Usame de pasif orta yolcu tavr\u0131 tercih etti. Velhas\u0131l bir \u00e7ok detay\u0131 atlayarak \u015funu belirteyim; El Kaide k\u00fcresel a\u011f\u0131 merkezi Irak i\u015fgal sonras\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle Usame\u2019nin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesiyle art\u0131k Irak oldu. Zerkavi\u2019nin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi Zevahiri-Afganistan El Kaide\u2019si etkili k\u0131lmak bir yana daha da zay\u0131flatt\u0131, Usame\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcyle de bu peki\u015fti. Irak \u0130slam Devleti Suriye ile birlikte Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti oldu. (\u2018\u015eam\u2019 denilen b\u00f6lge g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Suriye\u2019nin ba\u015fkenti de\u011fil tabi eski ad\u0131yla \u2018\u015eam diyar\u0131\u2019 olan Filistin, L\u00fcbnan da dahil olmak \u00fczere daha geni\u015f bir co\u011frafya)<\/p>\n
– \u2018Kafkasya cihad\u2019\u0131 devlet ilan\u0131 ard\u0131ndan di\u011fer cihad b\u00f6lgeleri gibi emirlikler haline geldi ve Devlet\u2019e biat ettiler. K\u0131saca I\u015e\u0130D \u00e7arp\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 El Kaide\u2019ci \u00f6rg\u00fctlere nazaran \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7ok daha k\u00f6kl\u00fc sava\u015f tecr\u00fcbesi, maddi, istihbari, lojistik imkan\u0131, militan\u0131 ve hatta inanc\u0131 \u00e7ok daha fazla olan bir yap\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca bu yap\u0131ya \u015fuan ger\u00e7ekten devlet demenin \u00f6n\u00fcnde bir mani yok. Kimse tan\u0131masa da bir devletin devlet olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gereken her \u015feye sahip. En az\u0131ndan \u015fuan i\u00e7in vilayetleri, mahkemeleri, vergi memurlar\u0131, polisleri, okullar\u0131, kanunlar\u0131, ordusu, paras\u0131, cezaevleri, belediye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, kimli\u011fi hatta pasaportuyla devlet mekanizmas\u0131 profesyonelce i\u015fliyor.<\/p>\n
– Nusra Suriye\u2019yi f\u0131rsat bilen ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve aktif el Kaide olan I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den \u00fcmidi kesen Zevahiri El Kaide\u2019sinin buradan isimlerini zikretmeyece\u011fim baz\u0131 kurum ve ki\u015fi kanallar\u0131ndan gelen T\u00fcrkiye deste\u011fiyle Hamas gibi bir me\u015fruluk kazanma projesiydi, tutmad\u0131, \u015fuan sadece varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirme derdindeler.<\/p>\n
– Nusra projesine, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i de kontrol alt\u0131na alabilmeye ve Suriye\u2019de rejimin kesin y\u0131k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye \u0130slamc\u0131lar\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i destekliyordu. Birden bire savunduklar\u0131n\u0131, videolar\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, m\u00fccahidler dediklerini silip atmak hatta d\u00fc\u015fman bilmek \u0130slamc\u0131lar i\u00e7in kolay olmad\u0131. Ama bir o kadar da iktidarla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen kaypakl\u0131klar ayan oldu.<\/p>\n
– Nusra \u015fuan hala T\u00fcrkiye kontrol\u00fcnde say\u0131labilir ama ileride bir g\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ba\u015fka bir ba\u015f belas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n
– I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den ayr\u0131l\u0131p Nusra ve di\u011fer \u00f6rg\u00fctlere kat\u0131lan tek t\u00fck olabilir ancak di\u011fer \u2018cihad\u00e7\u0131\u2019 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerden I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kat\u0131l\u0131m grup grup devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
– Tarihin g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en kat\u0131 \u015eii ve Alevi d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r I\u015e\u0130D. O ko\u015fullara raz\u0131 olduklar\u0131 ve aleyhlerine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131klar\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e gayri m\u00fcslimlerin ve hatta ateistlerin nefes alma haklar\u0131 vard\u0131r ama \u015eii ve Aleviler\u2019in yoktur.<\/p>\n
–\u00a0 Evet El Kaide kitlesel, toplumsal \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dayana\u011f\u0131 olan bir yap\u0131 de\u011fil ancak k\u00fcresel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011fu, g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc az\u0131msamamak gerekildi\u011fini unutmamak gerekir. \u00d6zellikle uzun zamand\u0131r beklenen bu son b\u00fcy\u00fck ataklar\u0131 hezimetle sonu\u00e7lanmazsa I\u015e\u0130D ileride tan\u0131nmas\u0131 zorunlu hale gelecek, yoksul S\u00fcnni \u0130slamc\u0131 tabana dayanan bir Ortado\u011fu devleti olabilir. Hi\u00e7 \u2018\u00e7ok zor\u2019 demeyin.<\/p>\n
-I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i \u0130ran ve Suriye\u2019nin kurdu\u011fu ya da destekledi\u011fi \u015feklindeki iddialara bilerek hi\u00e7 de\u011finmedim bile.<\/p>\n
– I\u015e\u0130D sava\u015f\u0131r, \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcr-\u00f6l\u00fcr ba\u015fka bir stratejisi yoktur demeyin, I\u015e\u0130D nereye girece\u011fini nereye girmeyece\u011fini, nereyi tutmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini nereden \u00e7ekilmesi gerekti\u011fini, petrol hatlar\u0131n\u0131, santralleri, barajlar\u0131, su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131, hangi \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc-devleti ne zaman kar\u015f\u0131na alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ya\u015famay\u0131 da \u00e7ok iyi biliyor.<\/p>\n
– T\u00fcrkler genelde\u00a0 Nusra ve \u0130slami Cephe kanallar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etse de I\u015e\u0130D i\u00e7erisinde de onlarca denilebilecek kadar T\u00fcrk y\u00fczlerce denilebilecek kadar K\u00fcrt (G\u00fcney ve Kuzey K\u00fcrdistan a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131, G\u00fcney daha fazla) sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131 var.<\/p>\n
– Yine \u00e7ok\u00e7a payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm \u2018Musul\u2019dan ka\u00e7an Irak ordusunu halk\u0131n ta\u015flamas\u0131\u2019 videosu da \u00e7arp\u0131tmad\u0131r, \u00e7ok eski bir zamana aittir. Musul\u2019da de\u011fil Sadr mahallesinde Sadr yanl\u0131s\u0131 gen\u00e7lerin Maliki ordusunu ta\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleridir.<\/p>\n
– I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015fan devlet ve \u00f6rg\u00fctler kesinlikle I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i tan\u0131m\u0131yor en b\u00fcy\u00fck zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131 bu.<\/p>\n
Biraz kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ve anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 zor c\u00fcmleler de var san\u0131r\u0131m metinde, vakit yetersizli\u011fi sebebiyle mazur g\u00f6r\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
http:\/\/ebrari.wordpress.com\/2014\/06\/12\/isid-ve-turkiye-irak-suriye-nusra<\/a> sayfas\u0131ndan al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I\u015e\u0130D’in Musul’u i\u015fgal etmesi ile birlikte \u00f6nemi artan I\u015e\u0130D’in T\u00fcrkiye-Suriye-Irak \u00fc\u00e7genindeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck bir analiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":459,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[56,218,101,100,102,58,155,230,86,233,231,232,57,9,24],"class_list":["post-452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","tag-akp","tag-aksayan-surekli-devrim","tag-arap-bahari","tag-arap-devrimi","tag-arap-devrimleri","tag-erdogan","tag-irak","tag-isid","tag-kurt-sorunu","tag-mit","tag-musul","tag-nusra","tag-tayyip","tag-trocki","tag-trockist"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=452"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":454,"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452\/revisions\/454"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marx-21.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}